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Commercial Observer
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Edited by Jotham Sederstrom | Jsederstrom@observer.com

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Thursday July 05, 2012
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Europe, Uncertain U.S. Economic Recovery Keep CRE Loan Values High

Commercial real estate loans that collateralize CMBS continue to rise, according to May 2012 data from DebtX. As The Mortgage Observer has previously reported, the loan sale advisor has charted a steady increase in the aggregate value of these loans as the market continues to improve in fits and starts.

For May, DebtX priced 55,510 loans with an aggregate balance of $765.7 billion. These increased to 88.2 percent as of May 31, 2012 compared to 88.1 percent the month previous. Year over year the value increased from 81.6 percent.

“Commercial real estate loan prices climbed for a fifth straight month in May as underlying market conditions continued to improve,” DebtX CEO Kingsley Greenland said in a prepared statement about the findings. “CRE loan prices in May benefited from a decline in Treasury yields.”

That decline in Treasury yields has continued since DebtX collected the May 2012 data. Yields on 10-year notes fell to 1.61 percent Monday, while yields on 30-year bonds fell to 2.69 percent, according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

The International Monetary Fund Tuesday predicted a “tepid” U.S. economic recovery and said that the U.S. “remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis,” both factors that are likely to keep commercial real estate loan prices low and continue the trend the DebtX data has charted.

Carl Gaines is reachable at cgaines@observer.com

CMBS Delinquency Rate High, But it May Drop

CMBS loans 30-plus days delinquent continued their steady upward march in June, rising to a new all-time high of 10.16 percent for the month of June 2012, according to Trepp. As of now, $59 billion in the loans are delinquent, excluding loans past their balloon dates but current in interest payments.

Driving the upward trend are the huge numbers of CMBS loans packaged and issued in 2007.

“The soaring temperatures across the U.S. made for a very uncomfortable June in many places," said Trepp senior managing director Manus Clancy. “With the level well over 10 percent now, the delinquency rate is equally uncomfortably high for CMBS investors. Driving the rate up has been the fact that only 28 percent of the loans from 2007 due to mature in 2012 managed to pay off in full. Just as the heat should break by September, investors should see some relief, too. Now that most of the 2007 loans coming due in 2012 have passed their maturity date, the delinquency rate should start to level off soon.”

In June, the Mortgage Bankers Association also noted that the delinquency rate for CMBS was continuing to rise—a phenomenon that the group charted over the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the rate for commercial and multifamily was a bright spot and declined, the association said.

This continued to be the case in Trepp’s findings as well. Multifamily delinquency rates were unchanged for June and held steady at 15.17 percent compared to the month previous. Loans resolved with losses declined during the same period. In June, $1.4 billion in the resolutions were seen, down from $1.6 billion the previous month. However June saw nearly $4.5 billion in newly delinquent commercial real estate loans.

Carl Gaines is reachable at cgaines@observer.com

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