BY SAM CHANDAN

The cover of last Friday’s The Economist bears an image of Uncle Sam.

That is not unusual in itself, since he is one of the magazine’s most consistent allegories. In his most current incarnation, however, he departs significantly from Uncle Sam Wilson of Troy and from the Uncle Sam imagined by J.M. Flagg for his 1917 war recruitment poster. In keeping with a more contemporary sartorial standard, the updated version has lost his familiar coat. He is now shirtless and buffer than any economist you are likely to encounter. As wide as his guns, the title above him reads “comeback kid,” implying a rebounding recovery.

Is the Economy on the Rebound? Or is it Reinvention?

The suggestion that we may be on the cusp of a new growth spurt seems ill timed. June’s employment report seemed confirmation enough that something is wrong. As it turns out, a contrarian assessment is not what the venerable journalists of St. James’s Street intend to convey. They agree that the economy is “in a tender state,” but also posit that things are better than they appear. The private sector is positioned for growth. Pointing to politics and the public sector as curbs on our potential, their advice to the next president beckons to the Hippocratic Oath: do no harm.

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BY ADELAIDE POLSINELLI

One of the most challenging aspects of a broker’s career is accurately determining if the purchaser you are working with can ultimately close a deal.

The probability of successfully closing a transaction is what divides an exceptional broker or agent from an average one. You’re not in Kansas anymore, Dorothy! You need the courage to get off the Yellow Brick Road and pull back the curtain on your buyers.

It all begins with finding the right buyer for the deal you are trying to sell. Most experienced agents know the typical cast of characters and know from past dealings who is capable of closing, who is a flipper, who ties up a deal then scrambles to find partners and who uses his or her own money to close. However, the industry is constantly changing, and there are new players hoping to gain admittance every day. Additionally, there are many novice agents who have not yet learned the skills of properly vetting a buyer, which adds to the conf usion in today’s marketplace.

So in getting that deal to a contract, these are some of the typical items brokers ask for and, unfortunately, rely on: proof of funds, a résumé and a list of properties owned by a buyer. But there are several reasons why these are not the best indicators of probable performance.

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BY DANIEL GEIGER

Leasing activity in the first half of 2012 was, by all accounts, a shadow of last year.

About 11.1 million square feet was leased, substantially down from the 17.6 million square feet leased during the first six months of 2011, according to data collected by the real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

To be fair, last year, which ended with about 30.1 million square feet of deals in Manhattan, was one of the strongest periods of leasing activity in a decade in the city and hence isn’t a signal alone that the 2012 market is depressed.

Yet activity, after surging during the first half of 2011, has fallen consistently quarter after quarter since then, first to 6.4 million square feet in the third quarter of 2011, then to about 6.1 million square feet in both the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 and, most recently, to about 5.4 million square feet in the past three months.

Though the market has clearly been slowing, the numbers alone for months hadn’t been enough to signal trouble; Manhattan has seen an average of about six million square feet of deals per quarter over the past decade, according to C&W, an activity level the market has generally been keeping pace with.

The second quarter’s dip below that threshold, however, affirmed a sense of concern that has been building in the real estate industry about a slowdown. Compounding the dismal quarter was the fact that statistics during the period were substantially propped up by two large transactions, renewals by both Viacom and Morgan Stanley that together accounted for almost three million square feet.

“The European debt crisis, the upcoming presidential election, slowing growth in China and elsewhere, the uncertainty surrounding the global macroeconomy translates into executives being extremely thoughtful before making impactful business decisions—and real estate is certainly one of those decisions,” Ben Friedland, a senior leasing executive at the real estate services company CBRE, told The Commercial Observer. “The uncertainty also leads to a focus on capital preservation, which has caused an uptick in renewals.”

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BY CARL GAINES

Hudson Realty Capital has funded a $5.9 million first mortgage for a 42-unit multifamily property in Middle Village, Queens. There is also ground floor retail at the location, which sits on Woodhaven Boulevard.

The borrower will use the loan to stabilize the property—leasing up vacant units over the next year—after reserves from a discounted first-mortgage payoff are acquired.

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