BY ROBERT KNAKAL

Put your space helmet on, strap yourself in and get ready for what is sure to be one of the wildest rides in the history of New York City’s commercial real estate investment sales markets.

Yes, the fourth quarter of 2012 is likely to go down as one of the most active periods in the last quarter-century for property sales in the Big Apple.

Changes in tax law often spark activity as market participants rush to beat the deadline, as we saw most notably in 1986.

The looming threat of substantial capital gains tax increases next year has the market poised to see a huge spike in transaction volume. We began alerting clients at Massey Knakal to this possibility back in January, as it was clear at that time that the capital gains rate, which is an integral variable in determining the after-tax proceeds of most commercial real estate sales, was vulnerable to change.

Record deficits, lower-than-expected tax revenue and an economic recovery that is moving at a snail’s pace have members of Congress scratching their heads for solutions.

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BY SAM CHANDAN

If you believe the economy has found its legs, you might know something the Federal Reserve does not. Emerging from a two-day meeting the week before last, monetary policy makers expressed new concerns about the downside risks to growth and hardened the language of their press release to reflect this.

They also questioned whether the employment situation could improve materially absent further policy accommodation, signaling a dim view of the private sector’s inherent potential. The new language hints that the Federal Open Market Committee is prepared to improvise until well after the outlook has improved.

Already at the lower bound of conventional interest rate policy, the Fed has largely exhausted its capacity to support the economy. Even if central bankers are at pains to suggest otherwise, the conduct of monetary policy is now more experimental than substantial. The efficacy of explicit time frames for low rates and shifts in balance sheet composition—two of the current channels for policy intervention—is not incontrovertible. Nor is it clear that such measures have had a meaningfully positive impact on the real economy over this cycle.

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BY ROBERT SAMMONS

Before digging into the latest jobs numbers for New York City, let’s pause for a comment on the ongoing controversy regarding the unemployment rate in both the city and the state. Very briefly—the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, is believed by a number of government officials and economists to be flawed.

This is primarily because it is a much smaller sample within a potentially inaccurate model, as opposed to the larger payroll survey derived from employers. It remains to be seen when this issue will be resolved, but for now, let’s talk more about the latest (and more reliable) payroll survey.

In numbers just released by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, private sector jobs were up by 11,300 in August. Over the past 12 months, the jobs number has increased by a mind-blowing figure of 93,700, losing positions in just three of those months, all of them in 2011. Most recently, non-office sectors led the way, especially the trade, transportation and utilities category (primarily a rebound from the Consolidated Edison dispute) and leisure and hospitality.

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BY DANIEL EDWARD ROSEN

Iconic film company Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer has re-upped its lease at 655 Third Avenue for another five years, The Commercial Observer has learned.

MGM, which houses its New York City headquarters at The Durst Organization-owned 655 Third Avenue, will continue to occupy 5,719 square feet on the 27th floor of the building.

Asking rent for the 5-year lease renewal was $58-a-square-foot.

Karen Kuznick of The Durst Organization represented the landlord in-house. A Colliers International team of Steven Jaray, Brian Given, and Christopher Lopez represented MGM.

MGM filed for bankruptcy in 2010 and was rescued by MGM Holdings, a holding company that included Providence Equity Partners, TPG Capital, Sony Corporation of America, Comcast and DLJ Merchant Banking Partners as part-owners. The company has since gone on to release the Kevin James comedy vehicle Zookeeper and the upcoming remakes of RoboCop and Poltergeist.

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The November issue of The Mortgage Observer will feature the 20 most promising commercial mortgage brokers under 35 throughout the tristate area--but we need your help determining the best and brightest.

Whether it's thanks to financing volume or the complexity of the assignments they're given, we want to know who's racking up accolades in the mortgage industry, and we want your nominees for New York's next generation of mortgage brokers.

The due date for nominations is October 8, 2012. Those selected will be featured in our November issue. Include titles and company names for all submissions and include a little bit about why you think they deserve to be featured. Nominate yourself, a colleague, a friend or your son and daughter. Doesn't matter to us, just send your submissions by October 8.

Send nominations to topmortgagebrokers@observer.com. All emails will be kept strictly confidential.

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