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Commercial Observer
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Edited by Jotham Sederstrom | Jsederstrom@observer.com

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Wednesday October 24, 2012
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Lower Manhattan’s Growing Pains

BY DANIEL GEIGER

Gleaming new skyscrapers are rising, and more are planned. A cavernous retail complex that was once the highest-grossing shopping mall in the country is being reborn. The biggest and boldest investment in grand transit infrastructure in a generation is winding its way toward completion.

There’s no doubt that Lower Manhattan, with its blooming residential population, is not the office district it was a decade ago. During the recession, while other areas of the city like Midtown were wilting as tenants cast space onto the market and leasing activity plunged, the area, which experts were initially concerned would suffer the worst of the downturn, unexpectedly held its own.

Downtown’s sparkling newness, combined with its economy—space there comes at a substantial discount to Midtown North and South—has already drawn big tenants who believe it will be the city’s commercial district of the future.

Last year, Condé Nast signed a lease in excess of 1 million square feet at 1 World Trade Center, a deal that was perhaps even more beneficial to lower Manhattan than all its construction projects combined, thanks to what analysts describe as the company’s ability transform the area’s staid image. As exciting as all the progress is, lower Manhattan success stories, as they often do, come with caveats.

To read full story, click here.

Brookfield's Mitch Rudin Looks Back at First Year

BY JOTHAM SEDERSTROM

It’s been 15 months since former CBRE New York Tristate Region President Mitch Rudin accepted the position of president and chief executive officer of U.S. Commercial Operations at Brookfield Properties, and, since then, nobody can say it’s been a picnic.

Besides the Occupy Wall Street movement, which famously descended on Zuccotti Park shortly after he took office, Brookfield Properties has waged an aggressive campaign to market space at the World Financial Center in anticipation of new interest in lower Manhattan as a wave of ambitious development projects come to fruition over the next three years.

Mr. Rudin spoke to The Commercial Observer from the 41st floor of a building in Denver last week about his first year in office, his ambitious plans for retail at the World Financial Center, the decision to rename that famous building, and the behind-the-scenes negotiations with the city after the protesters made camp at Zuccotti Park last year.

To read full story, click here.

Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

BY ROBERT KNAKAL

The investment sales market in New York City can currently be described by market participants as: moderately improving, booming or frustrating. It all depends on who you are, what you do and your perspective. Remarkably, each of these adjectives appropriately describes current conditions.

At the end of the third quarter of 2012, the dollar volume of sales is moderately improving, but the number of buildings sold is booming, approaching totals seen at the peak of the market. Buyers are faced with rising prices and short supply, creating much frustration for all who want to deploy capital; at the same time, with values for most property types in most geographical submarkets at or above peak 2007 levels, sellers couldn’t be happier with these great market dynamics.

As is always the case, I will illustrate these conditions with statistics rather than adjectives to let you draw your own conclusions about how the investment sales market is performing. Mark Twain once said there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics. In this case, I have to strongly disagree with this legendary author, as the statistics paint a very clear picture of our market.

To read full story, click here.

Risks to Global Economy Could See Rapid Rise

BY SAM CHANDAN

With the presidential election front and center, developments on the global stage have taken a backseat in much of the press and in the public consciousness. While our attention is focused on the domestic issue of the moment, challenges in Europe, Asia and the Middle East remain. Whether as a result of crushing debt burdens or the uncertain direction of regime change, conditions in many parts of the world are inhospitable to business investment, at least for the present. That carries implications for the U.S. economy and real estate capital markets.

In its most recent World Economic Outlook report, released earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund stressed that threats to global growth remain pervasive. From the vantage point of the IMF leadership, the downside risks to real economic activity seem greater now than in April or last September. The major threats are the European debt crisis and the unresolved fiscal cliff in the United States.

When it comes down to the numbers, the 2012 and 2013 growth forecasts for the United States are relatively unchanged from the IMF’s April report. That is because the baseline forecast assumes some resolution of the fiscal cliff, however temporary and however close to the eleventh hour. Similarly, the general lack of panic in equity markets seems to anticipate a productive lame-duck session of Congress.

To read full story, click here.

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